The entire region Long Island and New York City region is in for another heavy dose of winter weather on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
According to David Stark, meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Upton, the forecast for the days ahead is challenging.
With temperatures expected to remain in the 20s through Wednesday, clouds are expected to begin to develop late in the day on Wednesday, with snow break-out likely around midnight or 1 a.m.
Snow intensity should begin to increase by sunrise, with locally moderate to heavy snow at times, making the Thursday morning rush hour "dicey" across Long Island and New York City, Stark said.
By mid-morning and early afternoon on Thursday, snow could turn to rain.
"If the storm tracks closer to the coast or east of us, warmer air will move in and we expect Long Island to change over to a rain/snow mix," Stark said.
The question, he added, is how far west that rain will develop; while eastern Long Island could see all rain Thursday afternoon, New York City could still be seeing snow.
Thursday evening, as the storm pulls away to the northeast, colder air will again blanket the region, with Long Island and New York City both open to the possibility of even more snow accumulation.
The entire storm is slated to be out of the area by midnight Thursday or early Friday, just in time for Valentine's Day.
Snowfall accumulations, as of Tuesday, are forecast to be in the four to eight inch range for New York City, four to six inch range for northern Long Island, and two to four inch range for southern and eastern Long Island.
But, Stark said, the initial blast of snow Wednesday night and early Thursday before the changeover to rain could lead to higher totals; stay tuned to Patch for details as they emerge.